* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 10/05/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 40 46 52 60 68 76 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 40 46 52 60 51 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 37 40 42 36 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 26 23 29 32 27 20 32 42 39 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 0 0 4 12 10 10 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 239 215 216 240 223 211 169 163 142 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.6 27.9 28.0 25.9 24.7 15.1 14.0 11.5 10.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 147 138 139 115 106 72 72 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.0 -52.7 -53.2 -52.6 -50.9 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.5 2.1 2.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 79 78 73 70 65 62 66 61 65 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 19 22 27 29 31 30 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 37 62 79 73 100 72 106 190 261 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 96 119 129 116 83 93 108 150 103 76 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 9 11 15 33 72 107 84 120 19 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 625 758 883 1063 1137 936 608 287 -59 -220 -246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.2 25.5 26.7 28.4 30.1 33.6 37.0 41.1 45.5 49.6 53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.9 65.9 65.9 65.7 65.5 65.8 66.3 66.5 67.5 70.6 75.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 15 17 17 17 19 21 23 23 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 41 25 10 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 10 CX,CY: 1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 2. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 3. 7. 13. 17. 19. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 11. 17. 25. 33. 41. 48. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.2 65.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/05/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.24 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.60 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.64 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 10.5% 6.7% 3.9% 3.8% 6.1% 5.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 4.0% 2.3% 1.3% 1.3% 2.1% 1.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/05/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/05/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 39 40 46 52 60 51 32 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 38 44 50 58 49 30 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 40 46 54 45 26 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 32 38 46 37 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT