* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP152023 10/05/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 49 50 52 58 63 66 62 57 52 50 51 53 47 39 35 V (KT) LAND 45 46 49 50 52 58 63 66 62 57 52 50 51 53 47 39 35 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 47 48 52 56 60 61 57 52 50 54 58 53 43 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 19 20 19 17 17 24 29 23 15 3 6 11 21 25 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 -3 0 0 -2 -5 2 6 -5 -4 5 SHEAR DIR 107 105 100 100 104 94 83 85 94 89 105 135 300 256 240 228 229 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.3 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 160 160 160 158 156 154 154 150 147 145 144 148 151 156 163 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 -51.1 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -50.8 -50.6 -50.6 -50.5 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 71 68 63 62 62 61 60 55 52 51 41 32 28 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 16 16 17 19 22 24 23 23 21 20 20 22 16 7 2 850 MB ENV VOR 37 33 37 43 49 54 67 72 79 75 66 65 83 110 97 87 64 200 MB DIV 43 55 37 32 38 73 51 61 53 39 22 -14 -7 23 26 35 -4 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 2 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -6 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 630 644 659 677 697 773 827 844 880 886 874 853 841 783 688 613 581 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.9 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.7 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.4 109.7 110.0 110.3 110.6 111.4 112.3 113.1 113.9 114.4 114.7 114.8 114.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 2 4 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 29 33 35 37 38 37 42 42 49 38 29 23 21 19 18 24 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 15. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -16. -17. -16. -14. -11. -11. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 10. 10. 7. 6. 5. 6. 0. -7. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 7. 13. 18. 21. 17. 12. 7. 5. 6. 8. 2. -6. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.6 109.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/05/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.70 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.29 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.31 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.83 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 22.6% 18.0% 14.9% 10.5% 22.0% 22.0% 10.0% Logistic: 1.0% 5.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 9.5% 6.3% 5.1% 3.6% 7.4% 7.4% 3.4% DTOPS: 5.0% 16.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 17.0% 21.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/05/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##