* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 10/05/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 51 52 54 57 61 65 73 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 51 52 54 57 61 38 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 50 51 52 53 51 34 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 24 33 36 33 31 19 35 49 39 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -1 -1 4 7 3 6 2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 208 211 224 222 213 166 159 148 119 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.3 27.9 28.0 27.1 24.9 25.5 16.6 13.7 11.5 16.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 143 138 139 128 107 112 76 71 68 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -53.1 -52.8 -51.4 -48.8 -47.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.8 1.1 2.0 1.1 3.1 3.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 77 73 71 68 62 66 61 62 67 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 15 16 20 24 27 29 31 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 64 88 81 101 107 113 163 236 299 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 121 146 122 89 63 107 140 93 68 97 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 18 12 17 37 20 20 26 66 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 685 845 1005 1098 999 836 481 208 -159 -410 -97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.9 26.5 28.1 29.7 31.3 34.7 38.1 42.1 47.6 50.1 50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.3 66.3 66.4 66.3 66.3 66.4 66.8 67.5 69.2 73.4 79.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 16 16 16 17 19 24 22 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 24 11 11 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 3. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 16. 19. 16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 12. 16. 20. 28. 29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 24.9 66.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/05/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.18 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.11 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.47 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.63 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 13.4% 9.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.8% 3.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/05/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/05/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 50 51 52 54 57 61 38 31 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 46 47 48 50 53 57 34 27 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 45 48 52 29 22 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 38 41 45 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT