* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP152023 10/05/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 59 62 67 71 70 66 58 55 52 54 47 38 33 32 V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 59 62 67 71 70 66 58 55 52 54 47 38 33 32 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 56 58 62 67 68 65 60 56 56 58 53 42 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 20 19 15 17 19 28 24 19 4 6 11 22 23 29 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 -2 -5 0 2 -1 -1 1 7 2 -3 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 105 103 98 99 96 96 83 87 91 105 137 227 222 227 216 222 230 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.4 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 159 158 156 154 152 150 148 148 148 148 148 150 158 171 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -51.0 -50.4 -50.8 -50.6 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 -50.8 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 69 65 66 66 66 62 58 50 52 46 33 23 23 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 18 18 21 23 24 24 22 20 20 21 17 7 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 39 48 50 51 57 64 69 74 64 63 78 83 81 73 59 49 200 MB DIV 62 58 50 51 70 69 45 77 69 12 -13 -16 19 -6 23 13 -21 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 -2 -8 -6 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 640 651 662 689 716 787 809 824 821 799 758 704 649 619 599 540 465 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.8 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.7 110.0 110.2 110.6 110.9 111.6 112.4 113.1 113.7 114.2 114.3 114.0 113.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 31 35 36 36 35 36 37 37 34 24 20 18 17 18 18 25 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -13. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 10. 11. 8. 6. 5. 6. 1. -8. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 12. 17. 21. 20. 16. 8. 5. 2. 4. -3. -12. -17. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.8 109.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/05/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.65 8.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.33 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -7.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 5.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.32 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 39.0% 26.1% 18.3% 13.0% 27.0% 24.7% 9.6% Logistic: 1.6% 7.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 16.2% 9.3% 6.4% 4.6% 9.1% 8.3% 3.3% DTOPS: 9.0% 22.0% 13.0% 10.0% 6.0% 14.0% 12.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/05/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##