* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992023 10/05/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 18 18 19 23 29 33 36 39 43 48 51 52 51 53 V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 18 18 19 23 29 33 36 39 43 48 44 33 34 37 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 34 36 34 27 22 15 15 19 16 13 14 11 9 6 5 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 5 9 5 4 -2 0 0 3 3 0 2 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 52 62 64 62 60 62 75 53 59 61 73 83 81 81 117 236 236 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.4 29.0 29.2 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 30.9 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 163 157 153 155 157 158 159 159 162 163 162 173 169 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 -50.5 -50.7 -50.1 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 6 8 6 7 6 8 6 8 6 9 7 11 9 700-500 MB RH 75 71 72 71 71 73 77 78 78 81 80 80 81 80 79 75 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 11 13 13 13 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 15 17 13 6 0 -19 -11 -4 4 14 12 26 55 66 17 200 MB DIV 35 50 36 21 -4 26 49 63 84 106 69 84 45 64 69 53 44 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -7 -2 11 3 LAND (KM) 291 288 306 334 362 369 333 331 308 307 282 258 169 -18 -136 103 284 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.1 93.4 93.7 94.1 94.6 95.8 97.0 98.0 98.8 99.0 98.9 98.8 98.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 5 6 6 5 2 1 1 2 7 10 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 57 55 52 47 37 20 15 17 23 25 25 25 25 25 26 65 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 4. 14. 23. 31. 35. 39. 42. 47. 51. 52. 54. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -11. -18. -23. -26. -27. -27. -26. -22. -16. -12. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 10. 7. 5. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 9. 7. 6. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 9. 13. 16. 19. 23. 28. 31. 32. 31. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.9 93.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992023 INVEST 10/05/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.96 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992023 INVEST 10/05/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##