* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 10/05/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 50 51 54 61 69 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 50 51 54 61 69 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 48 49 50 49 51 56 52 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 31 35 32 27 16 20 38 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -1 0 4 16 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 216 225 231 228 233 168 168 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 27.9 27.9 27.4 26.4 24.9 20.7 13.3 11.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 137 138 131 120 107 85 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 75 73 69 67 64 63 60 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 15 17 23 28 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 79 80 104 118 98 108 135 208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 141 114 83 57 64 114 154 111 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 22 17 27 52 72 106 92 52 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 827 976 1108 1020 940 699 393 32 -186 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.3 27.8 29.3 31.0 32.6 35.9 39.6 44.5 50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.3 66.3 66.4 66.3 66.2 66.8 66.2 66.4 69.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 17 17 17 22 28 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 11 10 8 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 8. 14. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 7. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 16. 24. 26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.3 66.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/05/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.20 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.42 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.56 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 12.7% 8.5% 5.2% 0.0% 7.7% 7.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.5% 3.0% 1.8% 0.0% 2.6% 2.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/05/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/05/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 50 51 54 61 69 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 46 47 48 51 58 66 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 46 53 61 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 39 46 54 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT