* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP152023 10/05/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 59 64 70 69 63 56 53 54 52 44 40 33 32 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 56 59 64 70 69 63 56 53 54 52 44 40 33 32 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 54 55 57 62 67 68 64 59 56 58 58 53 46 39 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 20 16 16 18 20 25 23 15 5 7 16 27 29 29 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -3 -1 -3 0 0 0 0 -2 6 0 0 2 2 3 SHEAR DIR 101 102 101 99 92 91 70 86 94 124 208 249 215 207 202 204 210 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 29.1 29.5 29.7 30.3 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 158 157 155 152 148 148 147 148 149 153 156 158 166 170 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.5 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -50.6 -50.5 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -50.5 -50.5 -50.7 -51.1 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 72 73 69 64 63 64 63 60 57 55 55 49 40 32 28 24 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 20 20 23 27 27 25 23 21 23 22 15 11 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 50 52 51 53 68 77 83 68 67 71 79 76 79 80 70 64 200 MB DIV 72 65 55 70 77 51 57 33 26 -9 -3 29 36 12 35 15 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 -5 -7 -5 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 635 653 673 715 757 800 824 806 765 728 686 634 568 547 539 517 422 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.1 16.0 16.1 16.6 17.2 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.8 110.1 110.4 110.9 111.3 112.1 113.1 113.8 114.1 114.1 113.7 113.1 112.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 3 3 2 3 4 4 2 2 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 36 37 35 35 37 37 28 20 18 17 17 21 28 33 49 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -12. -11. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 11. 9. 7. 4. 7. 4. -4. -7. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 20. 19. 13. 6. 3. 4. 2. -6. -10. -17. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.0 109.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/05/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.65 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.24 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 171.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.33 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 25.0% 20.1% 17.1% 12.0% 23.9% 18.1% 8.8% Logistic: 0.6% 4.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 10.1% 7.0% 5.8% 4.1% 8.0% 6.1% 3.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 15.0% 7.0% 6.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/05/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##