* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992023 10/05/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 18 18 20 26 32 37 41 46 49 53 53 54 56 58 V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 18 18 20 26 32 37 41 46 49 53 53 36 36 38 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 33 34 27 23 23 14 17 17 19 16 16 11 13 8 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 8 13 12 1 0 0 2 2 2 0 1 0 3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 62 62 60 59 51 70 69 58 58 77 80 81 75 80 68 61 262 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.7 29.2 30.8 30.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 163 161 158 154 154 157 157 157 154 154 156 162 157 172 172 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.3 -50.8 -50.5 -50.4 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 8 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 10 10 13 700-500 MB RH 71 72 73 73 72 77 79 81 81 81 80 81 79 80 77 76 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 11 12 12 11 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 17 15 16 16 9 3 -15 -19 -8 11 10 24 16 50 52 55 49 200 MB DIV 52 38 33 16 30 53 74 106 112 109 77 97 37 88 86 44 47 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -6 -7 5 2 LAND (KM) 315 334 362 392 372 318 311 311 288 301 314 297 196 24 -153 63 171 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.6 13.4 13.2 13.3 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.7 94.1 94.6 95.1 95.6 96.7 97.7 98.6 98.8 98.6 98.3 97.9 97.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 6 5 3 0 2 2 3 7 9 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 54 47 37 28 21 16 17 21 24 22 19 18 20 24 17 48 93 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 5. 14. 23. 29. 34. 38. 42. 46. 50. 51. 52. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -0. -3. -10. -16. -21. -25. -26. -27. -26. -23. -17. -13. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 11. 10. 7. 5. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 4. 5. 5. 3. 3. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 6. 12. 17. 21. 26. 29. 33. 33. 34. 36. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 93.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992023 INVEST 10/05/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.95 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 46.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.92 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% 8.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 2.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992023 INVEST 10/05/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##