* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 10/06/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 49 53 60 66 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 49 53 60 46 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 44 44 46 50 39 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 35 35 29 25 14 28 47 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 0 3 6 12 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 231 228 224 229 229 180 156 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.7 26.6 25.5 24.8 16.2 15.1 13.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 135 122 111 106 75 74 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -53.4 -53.8 -52.5 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.5 1.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 75 73 69 62 63 63 62 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 16 17 18 24 27 30 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 72 97 112 118 122 136 209 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 106 66 41 67 91 144 119 84 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 37 44 73 66 101 77 75 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 946 1107 1073 984 921 619 293 -153 -305 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.4 29.0 30.6 32.2 33.8 36.8 41.0 46.0 50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.1 66.0 65.9 65.9 65.9 66.5 66.3 68.5 74.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 16 18 23 28 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 9 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 14 CX,CY: 1/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 14. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 15. 21. 27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.4 66.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/06/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.17 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.37 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.83 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 9.4% 6.2% 4.0% 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 3.3% 2.1% 1.3% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/06/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/06/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 47 49 53 60 46 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 48 52 59 45 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 44 48 55 41 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 41 48 34 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT