* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP152023 10/06/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 63 65 68 70 69 63 59 60 61 53 41 34 33 30 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 63 65 68 70 69 63 59 60 61 53 41 34 33 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 58 60 61 65 69 71 69 67 69 70 63 49 39 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 23 20 17 19 17 19 19 21 8 6 12 25 26 25 28 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 2 1 -3 4 7 1 0 0 4 4 SHEAR DIR 93 96 99 90 93 91 82 82 102 147 208 232 207 214 216 226 212 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.7 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 157 156 154 151 148 148 148 149 152 160 168 169 168 168 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.7 -50.8 -50.6 -50.2 -51.0 -50.5 -51.0 -50.5 -51.0 -50.3 -50.4 -49.8 -50.1 -49.7 -50.4 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 72 68 64 61 62 61 57 55 57 54 51 48 39 37 34 31 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 22 23 24 26 27 26 25 26 28 21 11 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 52 48 49 58 69 77 77 73 68 74 84 85 83 65 51 54 200 MB DIV 89 68 79 55 47 30 25 17 22 -12 4 35 59 49 19 4 -14 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -2 0 -2 -11 -11 -10 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 672 698 725 761 796 823 821 782 733 673 599 547 505 481 403 328 269 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.9 15.9 15.9 16.3 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.2 18.4 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.4 110.7 111.2 111.6 112.5 113.5 113.9 113.7 113.3 112.8 112.1 111.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 3 3 4 5 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 30 32 33 35 36 40 35 25 19 17 18 20 32 56 62 55 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -9. -9. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 6. 5. 7. 8. -1. -11. -18. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 10. 13. 15. 14. 8. 4. 5. 6. -2. -14. -21. -22. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.7 110.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/06/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.59 9.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.19 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -8.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 8.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.30 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.77 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 44.7% 32.2% 19.5% 13.5% 24.4% 17.1% 8.6% Logistic: 1.8% 7.6% 1.7% 1.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 17.7% 11.3% 6.8% 4.9% 8.2% 5.7% 2.9% DTOPS: 10.0% 22.0% 13.0% 10.0% 7.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/06/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##