* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992023 10/06/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 19 19 21 24 29 34 37 40 41 45 46 49 51 53 V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 19 19 21 24 29 34 37 40 32 28 27 31 33 29 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 19 18 17 16 15 15 15 16 18 21 25 26 30 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 36 34 27 23 21 20 17 18 13 10 9 8 10 20 25 29 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 11 10 3 3 1 0 -1 0 -3 -1 -1 -4 1 6 14 SHEAR DIR 65 63 59 50 49 62 60 65 64 80 154 181 236 251 258 253 227 SST (C) 29.8 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.8 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.5 29.3 29.7 29.9 30.2 28.9 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 158 155 154 155 162 168 168 167 168 167 157 163 166 170 157 161 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 -50.4 -50.4 -50.1 -50.5 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 8 8 6 7 6 7 5 8 7 9 8 12 7 3 700-500 MB RH 69 73 75 75 76 79 83 83 85 84 82 83 79 77 69 69 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 22 21 13 1 -2 -24 -11 -13 6 13 22 86 85 4 29 103 200 MB DIV 37 43 37 36 41 88 59 103 105 53 75 44 75 73 79 65 119 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 -5 -1 -1 0 0 -1 4 16 31 32 24 LAND (KM) 368 336 318 300 311 292 254 191 131 77 29 -89 -233 -44 38 59 -176 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.7 14.5 15.4 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.6 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.0 95.8 96.4 97.0 97.7 99.1 100.3 101.0 101.0 100.7 100.3 99.7 99.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 4 2 3 3 8 12 15 18 20 23 HEAT CONTENT 28 19 16 16 17 26 35 35 33 32 30 19 16 36 43 34 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 6. 14. 22. 29. 33. 37. 40. 45. 49. 53. 57. 63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -13. -16. -18. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 17. 20. 21. 25. 26. 29. 31. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.5 95.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992023 INVEST 10/06/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.90 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 43.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992023 INVEST 10/06/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##