* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 10/06/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 47 49 52 58 63 59 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 47 49 52 58 63 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 46 49 48 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 30 29 30 27 29 45 54 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 0 0 -2 8 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 232 228 218 228 197 170 161 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 28.1 27.1 26.1 24.9 25.4 14.9 13.3 12.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 140 127 117 106 112 73 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -52.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -50.7 -48.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.1 2.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 75 72 64 63 63 62 60 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 19 18 20 25 29 24 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 90 106 114 102 118 147 235 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 29 69 90 81 175 133 96 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 37 44 84 69 66 76 49 41 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1112 1143 1077 980 831 517 132 -226 -329 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.8 30.3 31.7 33.4 35.0 38.1 42.8 47.8 50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.5 65.3 65.1 65.4 65.7 66.1 67.1 70.6 74.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 17 16 20 25 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 14 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 13 CX,CY: 2/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 8. 15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 13. 18. 14. 22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.8 65.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/06/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.17 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.34 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.73 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 11.7% 7.9% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 4.0% 2.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/06/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/06/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 47 49 52 58 63 36 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 51 57 62 35 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 46 52 57 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 44 49 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT