* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP152023 10/06/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 70 71 73 74 69 66 63 64 61 56 55 49 46 42 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 70 71 73 74 69 66 63 64 61 56 55 49 46 42 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 66 69 71 75 78 76 73 73 77 77 71 64 58 52 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 21 16 17 19 18 18 20 14 8 10 20 26 22 26 33 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 2 0 -2 8 7 0 -1 -3 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 98 97 99 85 97 85 84 88 133 171 221 223 206 210 206 185 199 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.2 29.8 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.5 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 159 158 157 152 148 148 148 150 154 161 166 166 166 169 166 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.6 -50.6 -50.2 -50.6 -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 -50.7 -50.4 -50.3 -49.8 -49.3 -49.6 -49.6 -50.2 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.4 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 69 64 63 63 62 60 59 54 54 54 54 49 46 46 43 36 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 22 25 24 26 28 27 27 26 28 27 23 21 16 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 52 53 53 59 64 69 77 81 70 71 80 86 84 77 75 59 65 200 MB DIV 58 53 50 29 23 51 16 35 8 35 38 54 56 32 65 66 18 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 -2 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -10 -8 -3 0 LAND (KM) 653 676 699 742 768 763 752 728 654 584 515 468 437 370 280 166 38 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.9 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.4 110.7 111.2 111.7 112.6 113.3 113.6 113.3 112.7 111.8 110.9 109.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 4 3 2 3 4 4 5 4 4 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 36 37 36 35 34 30 24 19 17 18 22 33 50 51 47 52 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 6. 4. -1. -3. -7. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 11. 13. 14. 9. 6. 3. 4. 1. -4. -5. -11. -14. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.1 110.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/06/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.55 9.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.26 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 255.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 -8.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 9.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 7.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.33 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.4 49.8 to 0.0 0.99 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.9% 46.3% 37.6% 27.9% 20.2% 24.2% 16.8% 8.5% Logistic: 2.9% 8.3% 1.8% 1.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.6% 19.3% 13.2% 9.7% 7.4% 8.1% 5.7% 2.9% DTOPS: 11.0% 18.0% 10.0% 11.0% 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/06/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##