* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992023 10/06/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 18 18 21 24 28 32 35 40 44 44 44 47 47 48 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 18 18 21 24 28 32 35 32 29 27 27 27 29 26 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 27 23 23 22 18 20 16 14 14 8 6 11 10 24 32 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 13 11 5 2 0 2 1 0 -2 -1 -1 -5 -1 -2 2 8 SHEAR DIR 61 58 50 52 59 61 59 54 81 116 152 207 265 262 265 263 251 SST (C) 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.8 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.4 29.9 29.1 30.0 29.5 30.1 29.7 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 155 154 156 162 165 166 167 166 162 155 165 161 168 165 173 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -50.8 -50.3 -50.3 -50.1 -50.6 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 10 11 11 3 700-500 MB RH 72 75 75 77 78 78 83 84 86 82 83 78 76 73 70 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 8 10 12 10 8 9 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 20 22 16 11 0 -15 -27 -12 -10 4 7 16 34 29 -3 40 66 200 MB DIV 35 16 33 63 90 72 76 100 82 55 69 35 20 49 44 44 80 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 3 8 18 8 LAND (KM) 364 327 307 287 297 277 225 139 75 31 -29 -175 -177 -77 -34 38 -90 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.8 14.7 15.6 16.1 16.4 16.9 18.2 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.1 95.7 96.3 96.9 97.6 99.0 100.0 100.3 100.0 99.6 99.3 99.1 98.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 4 2 2 5 9 11 13 15 18 22 HEAT CONTENT 25 19 17 16 17 26 32 32 31 30 25 11 7 30 41 40 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 14. 22. 28. 32. 36. 39. 44. 48. 51. 55. 61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -11. -15. -17. -17. -16. -15. -12. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 3. 1. 1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 4. 8. 13. 15. 20. 24. 24. 24. 27. 27. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.6 95.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992023 INVEST 10/06/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.89 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992023 INVEST 10/06/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##