* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 10/06/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 50 54 57 59 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 50 54 57 51 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 46 48 45 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 28 29 24 20 35 57 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 3 0 3 10 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 225 227 235 229 196 170 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 27.3 26.1 25.2 25.0 20.9 14.1 11.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 130 117 109 107 86 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -52.9 -53.5 -53.7 -52.2 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.1 -0.7 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 71 64 62 64 64 56 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 19 22 25 26 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 97 105 105 109 128 182 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 66 102 80 102 131 111 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 30 72 71 73 76 53 59 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1213 1125 1060 891 717 399 -27 -356 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.9 31.5 33.1 34.6 36.1 39.5 44.6 50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.7 64.7 64.6 65.2 65.8 66.2 68.4 73.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 16 22 31 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 14 CX,CY: 6/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 10. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 29.9 64.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/06/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.21 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.30 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.72 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 13.6% 9.3% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.7% 3.2% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/06/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/06/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 48 50 54 57 51 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 52 55 49 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 47 50 44 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 42 36 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT