* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992023 10/06/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 18 19 21 26 32 37 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 18 19 21 26 32 32 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 19 19 18 17 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 25 25 22 21 19 15 14 11 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 9 7 4 1 1 2 4 -1 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 54 50 58 60 58 67 60 88 120 161 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.7 29.0 29.5 29.9 30.4 30.5 30.8 30.3 29.2 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 153 159 163 168 168 169 166 154 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 77 77 78 79 80 80 84 82 82 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 7 7 6 7 7 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 5 -1 -8 -22 -33 -19 -15 -15 10 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 83 108 88 92 91 95 107 46 69 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 -5 -2 -4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 300 285 290 283 278 256 178 91 -12 -102 -178 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 13 15 20 25 35 35 33 28 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 13. 20. 26. 30. 34. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -8. -11. -12. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 6. 12. 17. 15. 16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.0 96.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992023 INVEST 10/06/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.88 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.0% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 1.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992023 INVEST 10/06/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##