* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP152023 10/07/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 50 49 48 48 51 54 42 29 26 25 25 25 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 50 49 48 48 51 54 42 29 26 25 26 26 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 53 52 51 49 47 46 46 47 40 31 26 24 26 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 21 20 22 21 18 9 3 9 29 29 32 40 44 47 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -5 -2 8 3 3 2 4 -1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 99 109 95 92 94 89 114 213 229 221 223 217 217 213 215 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.8 30.0 30.3 30.6 29.1 28.9 29.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 153 151 150 147 149 153 162 165 168 171 155 153 156 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.9 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 -50.3 -50.9 -50.6 -50.2 -49.8 -49.9 -50.8 -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 11 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 62 62 61 58 59 58 50 49 42 38 37 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 25 25 25 25 23 23 24 16 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 62 65 66 69 65 59 62 75 78 59 21 -4 -12 24 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 35 53 55 51 64 39 37 73 98 23 16 -1 10 10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -1 1 4 -7 6 2 1 0 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 801 801 805 793 783 727 649 554 464 379 188 60 -101 -279 -389 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.3 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.5 20.5 21.5 22.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.2 112.6 112.8 113.1 113.2 112.8 112.0 110.7 109.2 107.5 106.0 104.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 6 7 9 9 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 36 35 32 29 20 17 20 35 40 41 32 12 19 19 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 14. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -19. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -0. -11. -24. -26. -25. -22. -20. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -4. -1. -13. -26. -29. -30. -30. -30. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.9 111.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/07/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.55 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.10 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.30 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.7 49.8 to 0.0 0.95 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 18.3% 15.7% 12.7% 9.0% 16.6% 14.0% 8.8% Logistic: 0.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 6.4% 5.3% 4.3% 3.0% 5.6% 4.7% 2.9% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/07/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##