* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992023 10/07/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 25 26 27 29 33 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 25 26 27 26 26 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 25 23 22 21 24 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 26 23 23 22 17 16 10 8 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 -2 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 51 58 59 66 76 75 85 104 170 246 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.5 30.8 30.4 29.1 29.0 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 161 163 165 166 168 169 167 153 151 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -50.8 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 82 82 82 85 83 86 81 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 6 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -6 -20 -29 -35 -36 -27 -18 26 64 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 120 120 104 68 64 60 56 25 75 61 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 0 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 280 260 252 248 241 166 88 -7 -136 -225 -256 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 5 5 5 5 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 22 27 30 33 33 33 28 17 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 4. 10. 16. 22. 25. 28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -7. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 97.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992023 INVEST 10/07/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.90 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.7% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 1.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992023 INVEST 10/07/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##