* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP152023 10/07/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 54 54 52 54 58 63 41 40 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 54 54 52 54 58 63 41 40 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 55 54 52 51 52 52 44 38 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 16 18 17 18 15 5 6 15 33 32 34 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 -1 0 -6 2 5 -1 -2 7 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 100 83 79 81 92 96 114 198 226 218 223 217 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.4 29.8 30.0 30.5 28.8 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 150 150 147 147 150 158 163 165 171 154 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -50.4 -50.5 -50.7 -50.2 -50.9 -50.4 -50.2 -49.2 -50.2 -50.4 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 6 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 62 62 60 60 61 62 57 53 51 51 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 26 25 26 24 23 24 26 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 63 63 63 55 55 59 70 80 67 59 5 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 57 58 67 62 29 54 48 101 74 -4 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 0 -1 -4 0 2 -1 -8 2 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 789 782 777 745 713 644 562 446 363 189 39 -238 -293 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.7 18.3 19.0 19.7 20.6 21.7 23.2 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.4 112.7 112.8 112.9 112.7 112.2 110.9 109.1 107.5 105.9 103.5 100.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 3 3 6 8 9 9 11 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 31 30 24 20 17 17 26 33 37 32 18 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. 1. 4. -18. -18. -17. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -1. 3. 8. -14. -15. -15. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.1 112.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/07/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.52 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.23 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 -4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 20.1% 17.5% 14.7% 10.3% 18.3% 15.3% 9.3% Logistic: 0.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 7.4% 6.0% 4.9% 3.5% 6.1% 5.2% 3.2% DTOPS: 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/07/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##