* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992023 10/07/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 24 26 28 32 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 24 26 28 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 22 20 18 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 25 22 19 18 19 12 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 1 3 4 0 3 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 66 64 59 64 71 75 85 94 200 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.5 29.8 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.0 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 159 161 164 165 165 165 163 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -50.9 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 7 6 5 7 5 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 77 78 79 79 81 83 81 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -29 -43 -41 -37 -31 -24 -13 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 90 70 55 70 58 84 25 70 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 -3 -5 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 298 282 273 244 223 156 66 -8 -161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 23 29 33 35 32 29 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 461 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 4. 10. 17. 22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 98.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992023 INVEST 10/07/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.89 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 6.0% 9.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Consensus: 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.0% 3.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992023 INVEST 10/07/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##