* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP152023 10/07/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 58 60 61 64 67 56 53 50 49 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 58 60 61 64 67 56 53 40 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 55 56 56 59 63 58 53 41 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 16 13 11 7 4 3 3 25 35 33 40 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 4 -2 -3 6 9 0 4 5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 79 87 80 78 64 93 101 258 223 215 222 215 207 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.7 29.2 29.9 30.2 30.0 29.2 28.8 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 150 147 149 155 164 168 164 156 152 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.2 -50.5 -50.7 -50.4 -50.5 -50.5 -50.1 -49.5 -49.8 -50.3 -50.7 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 65 65 65 64 65 64 58 55 54 44 41 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 25 25 26 25 26 26 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 52 51 51 56 55 61 70 80 82 38 17 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 62 61 52 40 46 70 76 81 12 18 -5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 0 -4 0 1 4 -7 -2 2 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 809 786 763 731 699 601 502 426 223 51 -56 -242 -428 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.9 17.2 18.0 18.6 19.1 20.0 20.9 21.8 23.0 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.4 112.5 112.6 112.7 112.8 112.4 111.4 110.1 107.8 106.0 104.8 103.4 101.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 9 11 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 31 28 23 20 17 23 37 43 28 21 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 1. -0. 0. 1. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 1. -2. -5. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.0 112.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/07/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.52 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.33 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 34.0% 20.6% 17.3% 12.5% 23.0% 22.7% 17.7% Logistic: 1.6% 9.7% 2.4% 1.4% 0.4% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 14.8% 7.7% 6.2% 4.3% 8.0% 7.9% 6.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 8.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/07/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##