* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992023 10/07/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 26 26 27 27 30 36 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 26 26 27 27 30 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 20 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 24 21 20 17 17 9 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 4 5 2 6 5 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 67 63 65 73 61 74 76 108 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.8 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.3 29.9 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 162 164 165 166 164 166 161 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 5 7 6 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 79 78 82 81 82 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -42 -46 -40 -41 -33 -32 28 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 59 67 42 32 43 39 57 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -5 -1 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 322 302 264 241 221 155 66 -14 -122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 30 36 36 38 32 29 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 10. 16. 21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 5. 11. 15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 99.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992023 INVEST 10/07/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.90 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 3.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2% 8.8% 13.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 6.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 3.0% 4.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992023 INVEST 10/07/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##