* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 10/08/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 39 44 53 68 77 83 86 86 84 83 84 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 39 44 53 68 77 83 86 86 84 83 84 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 29 30 33 39 47 55 62 66 66 64 62 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 5 5 1 4 9 6 3 10 5 11 16 15 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 10 12 18 18 22 20 13 11 7 4 11 10 5 5 2 1 SHEAR DIR 213 214 257 280 323 36 45 60 52 313 306 302 230 219 231 231 238 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.2 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 159 157 157 157 158 161 161 153 147 146 148 143 138 136 137 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 77 78 75 76 77 78 80 82 82 77 72 67 65 64 65 65 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 15 17 17 16 14 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 29 24 23 21 25 26 22 24 35 46 14 3 3 -12 -37 -49 -56 200 MB DIV 106 90 78 93 115 42 65 65 90 47 38 51 67 32 -1 3 3 700-850 TADV -1 0 -3 -4 -6 -3 -5 -6 -5 -1 -1 -4 0 -1 4 14 14 LAND (KM) 405 506 608 718 819 1025 1226 1420 1504 1488 1506 1570 1676 1817 1985 2078 2088 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.1 8.8 8.2 7.7 7.4 7.3 7.7 8.5 9.6 11.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 19.0 20.3 21.4 22.4 23.3 25.1 26.9 28.7 30.2 31.5 32.5 33.3 34.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 8 8 10 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 25 27 32 33 35 44 56 70 55 32 22 21 20 26 22 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 757 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 17. 28. 39. 49. 58. 65. 70. 73. 71. 72. 71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 6. 5. 4. 1. -0. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -13. -16. -16. -14. -11. -10. -9. -7. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. -9. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. 0. 5. 7. 5. 3. -1. -7. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 28. 43. 52. 58. 61. 61. 59. 58. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 19.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 10/08/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.38 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.70 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.91 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.58 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.89 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 16.7% 10.8% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 7.9% 2.9% 0.6% 0.2% 1.3% 2.3% 7.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 1.2% 4.2% 2.1% Consensus: 2.2% 9.0% 4.8% 2.3% 0.1% 0.8% 5.5% 3.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 10/08/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 31 34 39 44 53 68 77 83 86 86 84 83 84 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 32 37 42 51 66 75 81 84 84 82 81 82 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 27 32 37 46 61 70 76 79 79 77 76 77 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 25 30 39 54 63 69 72 72 70 69 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT