* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP152023 10/08/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 65 67 69 71 72 68 45 36 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 63 65 67 69 71 72 68 45 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 62 63 63 63 63 65 59 47 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 13 13 9 4 5 13 29 34 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 4 2 0 -5 1 10 11 2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 85 90 81 90 97 132 288 247 216 224 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.8 29.6 30.1 29.8 28.8 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 149 148 150 160 167 164 153 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 -50.0 -50.7 -50.2 -50.0 -49.5 -50.3 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 9 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 63 63 63 62 62 59 57 55 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 24 23 24 24 25 23 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 51 49 56 57 52 64 78 84 82 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 70 39 32 28 51 50 91 19 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -5 -1 0 3 -5 -1 10 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 812 779 746 700 654 557 466 352 80 -119 -359 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.3 18.8 19.4 20.7 22.0 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.5 112.6 112.7 112.7 112.7 112.1 110.8 108.9 106.4 104.2 102.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 4 5 8 11 13 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 30 25 20 17 18 30 42 28 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. 0. -2. -22. -26. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 8. -15. -24. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.0 112.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/08/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.48 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.24 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 7.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.0% 38.2% 26.1% 18.6% 13.5% 23.5% 18.8% 9.4% Logistic: 9.4% 28.0% 7.8% 6.4% 2.1% 4.0% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.7% 3.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 8.7% 23.3% 11.5% 8.4% 5.3% 9.2% 6.5% 3.2% DTOPS: 11.0% 11.0% 7.0% 7.0% 5.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/08/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##