* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 10/08/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 27 29 30 32 35 43 55 68 76 82 83 82 81 81 82 V (KT) LAND 25 27 27 29 30 32 35 43 55 68 76 82 83 82 81 81 82 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 28 28 29 31 37 45 52 58 61 61 59 59 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 7 5 3 3 7 11 2 8 7 5 11 15 12 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 11 16 18 20 21 17 10 9 4 9 11 5 6 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 215 251 257 301 303 21 50 74 27 293 317 248 221 216 217 232 233 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.4 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 159 158 157 158 162 161 155 148 145 147 148 142 138 137 137 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -52.8 -53.5 -53.2 -53.8 -53.3 -53.8 -53.3 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 9 700-500 MB RH 78 74 75 75 76 78 81 82 82 73 71 65 66 64 67 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 13 16 16 16 14 12 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 24 22 22 26 24 27 21 28 36 34 10 4 -1 -21 -44 -54 -56 200 MB DIV 83 78 97 115 102 50 57 89 66 63 36 55 42 18 -6 -1 1 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 -6 -3 -5 -6 -5 -2 0 -3 -4 -1 -3 7 12 13 LAND (KM) 474 577 686 798 901 1128 1341 1537 1481 1463 1483 1570 1692 1851 2023 2051 2043 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.2 8.9 8.3 7.8 7.5 7.5 8.0 8.7 9.9 11.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.0 21.2 22.3 23.3 24.2 26.2 28.1 29.9 31.3 32.4 33.3 33.9 34.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 10 10 10 10 7 7 6 6 8 9 10 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 26 29 31 30 38 49 66 60 38 28 24 23 24 26 23 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 745 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 16. 28. 39. 49. 58. 64. 70. 72. 71. 71. 70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 1. -0. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -13. -16. -16. -14. -11. -10. -9. -7. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. 2. 5. 5. 3. 0. -5. -9. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 18. 30. 43. 51. 57. 58. 57. 56. 56. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.6 20.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 10/08/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.36 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.91 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.57 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.89 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 14.0% 8.9% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 10.5% 4.5% 1.7% 0.5% 2.2% 3.1% 12.2% Bayesian: 1.3% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 1.2% 3.0% 11.2% Consensus: 2.2% 8.8% 4.7% 2.2% 0.2% 1.1% 5.0% 7.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 10/08/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 27 29 30 32 35 43 55 68 76 82 83 82 81 81 82 18HR AGO 25 24 24 26 27 29 32 40 52 65 73 79 80 79 78 78 79 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 26 29 37 49 62 70 76 77 76 75 75 76 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 21 29 41 54 62 68 69 68 67 67 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT