* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN EP162023 10/08/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 23 25 31 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 23 25 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 23 22 19 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 25 25 20 16 13 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 5 6 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 68 72 77 78 81 81 132 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 29.7 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 166 166 166 166 160 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 -50.9 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 75 77 79 79 77 81 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -38 -34 -33 -30 -24 54 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 74 102 88 77 71 32 81 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -5 -7 -8 -3 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 292 260 230 192 153 82 -13 -143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.8 17.8 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.5 100.8 101.2 101.3 101.5 101.6 101.5 101.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 4 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 40 40 35 33 30 23 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 461 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 8. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -3. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -2. 0. 6. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 100.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162023 SIXTEEN 10/08/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.93 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4% 7.0% 7.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% Consensus: 0.1% 6.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 2.4% 2.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162023 SIXTEEN 10/08/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##