* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 10/08/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 36 42 53 65 72 77 77 78 76 74 71 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 36 42 53 65 72 77 77 78 76 74 71 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 38 46 54 60 62 61 57 53 51 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 6 7 6 4 5 3 6 6 6 16 17 17 20 22 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 15 16 15 16 16 12 10 4 7 14 13 7 4 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 319 337 343 15 22 17 56 83 266 282 263 241 211 229 236 253 264 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 158 156 154 154 156 160 158 153 148 142 139 138 137 140 138 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -53.3 -53.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 77 78 78 78 80 80 81 80 76 71 65 63 63 61 60 61 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 14 16 17 16 15 15 12 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 24 21 24 24 29 19 19 26 28 8 -4 -10 -28 -54 -68 -80 -79 200 MB DIV 92 98 112 83 57 73 70 98 93 84 46 75 26 -2 -21 9 -18 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -6 -4 -3 -4 -5 -3 -1 0 0 2 7 8 13 11 12 LAND (KM) 646 740 828 902 985 1153 1305 1443 1575 1659 1724 1832 1934 2047 2126 2145 2156 LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.0 7.7 7.5 7.3 7.1 7.3 7.8 8.7 9.9 11.2 12.7 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.8 21.8 22.6 23.3 24.1 25.8 27.5 29.1 30.7 32.2 33.4 34.5 35.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 31 41 47 47 44 41 45 52 46 32 22 18 26 24 20 25 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 17. 29. 39. 49. 58. 64. 68. 70. 68. 69. 67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 5. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -13. -13. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. -10. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 1. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -7. -12. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 28. 40. 47. 52. 52. 53. 51. 49. 46. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.2 20.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 10/08/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.40 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.89 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.54 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 17.1% 11.1% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 9.4% 23.3% 11.6% 6.3% 3.3% 7.7% 11.5% 27.3% Bayesian: 1.5% 7.1% 2.1% 1.1% 0.3% 3.6% 6.3% 11.1% Consensus: 4.6% 15.8% 8.3% 4.6% 1.2% 3.8% 9.4% 12.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 10/08/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 36 42 53 65 72 77 77 78 76 74 71 70 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 34 40 51 63 70 75 75 76 74 72 69 68 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 29 35 46 58 65 70 70 71 69 67 64 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 21 27 38 50 57 62 62 63 61 59 56 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT