* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 10/08/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 36 40 44 55 61 67 71 71 71 72 71 72 72 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 36 40 44 55 61 67 71 71 71 72 71 72 72 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 30 33 39 46 53 58 58 57 54 51 51 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 7 10 7 8 6 5 13 7 14 12 18 12 6 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 17 17 17 19 14 13 7 1 4 10 13 9 5 5 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 35 354 16 32 36 23 41 255 271 275 252 217 202 233 243 322 343 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 155 153 152 154 154 154 160 156 151 148 141 139 138 137 138 137 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.7 -53.4 -54.0 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.7 0.7 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 78 78 77 77 79 80 80 77 72 72 65 65 61 59 54 57 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 11 11 11 10 14 15 16 17 16 15 13 9 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 24 23 21 24 18 7 12 15 8 1 -1 -8 -21 -54 -80 -90 -95 200 MB DIV 111 131 100 52 65 48 53 61 86 58 77 57 30 -33 -26 3 -33 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -5 -5 -4 -4 -3 -1 0 0 0 6 8 5 9 5 3 LAND (KM) 845 961 1058 1141 1208 1335 1444 1537 1599 1658 1735 1842 1953 2048 2134 2190 2233 LAT (DEG N) 7.7 7.4 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.7 7.5 8.7 10.0 11.4 12.9 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.8 23.9 24.7 25.4 26.0 27.3 28.6 29.9 31.2 32.4 33.6 34.8 35.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 8 7 7 6 6 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 47 44 43 45 47 50 56 65 44 31 21 19 26 23 20 25 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 18. 29. 40. 50. 58. 64. 69. 70. 69. 69. 67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -13. -11. -9. -8. -8. -6. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -1. -5. -11. -13. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. -0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 15. 19. 30. 36. 42. 46. 46. 46. 47. 46. 47. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 7.7 22.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 10/08/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.33 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.88 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.56 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.89 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 18.3% 11.9% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.4% 24.9% 12.6% 9.8% 5.8% 8.9% 12.8% 22.8% Bayesian: 2.9% 16.7% 10.0% 3.1% 1.3% 6.7% 4.4% 2.7% Consensus: 7.2% 20.0% 11.5% 6.7% 2.4% 5.2% 9.1% 8.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 10/08/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 36 40 44 55 61 67 71 71 71 72 71 72 72 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 33 37 41 52 58 64 68 68 68 69 68 69 69 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 27 31 35 46 52 58 62 62 62 63 62 63 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 25 36 42 48 52 52 52 53 52 53 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT