* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP152023 10/08/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 67 72 76 65 59 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 67 72 76 65 48 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 60 61 61 63 65 62 47 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 10 5 2 9 25 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -4 -4 -5 1 12 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 80 91 123 126 205 273 228 219 212 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 30.0 29.9 29.1 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 151 155 166 165 158 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -49.9 -50.3 -50.6 -50.3 -50.3 -49.5 -49.7 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 6 8 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 65 64 63 61 59 57 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 26 24 27 27 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 52 48 52 63 83 102 106 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 39 40 44 53 60 80 46 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 0 -1 -2 -2 5 -9 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 689 642 595 547 501 383 168 -87 -394 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.5 20.6 22.3 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.8 112.7 112.5 112.1 111.7 109.7 107.3 104.8 101.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 5 7 11 13 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 16 16 18 19 31 38 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. -8. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 5. -1. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.3 112.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/08/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.48 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.63 7.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -8.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 9.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 6.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.93 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.7% 46.8% 35.6% 24.9% 19.2% 26.2% 17.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 27.3% 7.0% 5.6% 3.1% 2.9% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 24.9% 14.3% 10.2% 7.4% 9.7% 5.8% 0.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 32.0% 23.0% 17.0% 12.0% 22.0% 7.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/08/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##