* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 10/09/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 48 60 69 77 79 78 74 73 73 76 77 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 48 60 69 77 79 78 74 73 73 76 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 49 57 62 62 58 54 52 52 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 6 8 8 9 9 3 9 7 13 15 23 19 15 15 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 16 18 16 15 15 9 5 4 3 8 15 12 8 3 2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 290 335 46 67 57 48 44 294 289 290 231 217 226 251 274 274 275 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.8 27.8 27.7 27.3 27.4 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 156 156 155 158 158 155 154 150 149 134 133 128 128 131 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 77 77 78 80 81 81 82 76 73 66 65 68 66 62 62 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 13 16 18 20 21 20 19 16 15 13 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 25 29 28 25 16 18 25 34 22 16 11 0 -21 -46 -69 -62 -69 200 MB DIV 139 105 67 67 62 49 94 79 106 62 90 66 6 -25 -35 3 -6 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -5 -4 -7 -5 -4 -1 0 -1 1 6 6 13 12 11 14 LAND (KM) 895 1015 1118 1212 1291 1444 1512 1553 1580 1546 1509 1493 1538 1640 1661 1699 1734 LAT (DEG N) 8.3 8.2 7.9 7.6 7.4 7.1 7.2 7.9 8.9 10.2 12.0 14.2 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.8 25.0 25.9 26.7 27.4 28.8 29.8 30.5 30.8 31.0 31.2 31.4 31.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 8 7 6 4 5 6 8 10 12 11 11 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 33 35 40 44 56 66 61 43 36 27 19 18 37 15 8 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 17. 29. 39. 49. 57. 63. 67. 68. 66. 66. 64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 6. 1. -2. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 23. 35. 44. 52. 54. 53. 49. 48. 48. 51. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.3 23.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 10/09/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.35 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.88 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.54 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.89 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 14.8% 9.5% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 13.3% 5.3% 2.6% 1.4% 4.3% 10.5% 29.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 1.3% 2.9% 11.3% Consensus: 2.3% 10.6% 5.3% 2.8% 0.5% 1.9% 7.8% 13.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 10/09/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 38 48 60 69 77 79 78 74 73 73 76 77 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 36 46 58 67 75 77 76 72 71 71 74 75 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 31 41 53 62 70 72 71 67 66 66 69 70 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 33 45 54 62 64 63 59 58 58 61 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT