* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP152023 10/09/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 68 71 73 66 63 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 68 71 73 66 40 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 60 61 62 64 65 62 39 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 6 6 6 18 33 44 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -9 -6 1 6 11 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 100 125 157 205 224 238 217 226 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.9 30.6 28.8 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 153 157 165 173 155 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.2 -50.6 -50.4 -50.2 -50.2 -49.6 -50.0 -49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 62 62 63 60 60 58 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 23 24 25 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 47 58 69 76 93 103 78 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 33 37 54 70 88 86 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -9 7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 614 570 526 462 405 309 65 -270 -334 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.1 19.4 20.4 21.8 23.7 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.7 112.5 112.3 111.7 111.0 108.8 106.2 103.4 100.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 7 9 13 15 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 16 17 18 20 29 48 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 13. 6. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.0 112.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/09/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.49 9.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 5.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.74 9.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 -9.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 10.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 8.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.7 49.8 to 0.0 0.91 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 4.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.7% 59.2% 43.9% 35.4% 31.2% 27.0% 16.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 9.1% 2.3% 1.7% 0.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 22.8% 15.4% 12.4% 10.7% 9.4% 5.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 10.0% 45.0% 24.0% 13.0% 7.0% 35.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/09/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##