* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP152023 10/09/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 55 57 58 53 53 55 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 54 55 57 58 53 43 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 54 54 54 51 40 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 6 6 24 40 42 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -6 0 5 11 4 -2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 127 150 213 209 235 223 222 225 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.5 29.9 29.9 29.1 28.8 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 155 159 164 166 158 155 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.4 -50.3 -50.0 -50.1 -49.6 -49.5 -49.9 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 62 60 57 58 52 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 25 26 26 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 51 60 69 79 96 103 34 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 40 51 56 56 89 45 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 3 -13 0 5 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 599 549 501 439 393 199 -79 -409 -189 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.1 19.4 20.6 22.4 24.3 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.6 112.2 111.7 110.9 110.0 107.6 104.9 102.2 99.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 7 9 11 14 16 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 17 19 25 30 36 23 20 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 3. -2. -2. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.1 112.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/09/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.57 9.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.71 7.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 283.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 -7.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 8.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.8 49.8 to 0.0 0.86 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.7% 39.6% 33.1% 22.5% 14.8% 22.6% 14.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 10.9% 3.3% 2.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 16.9% 12.1% 8.2% 5.2% 7.8% 4.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 50.0% 26.0% 9.0% 7.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/09/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##