* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MAX EP162023 10/09/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 47 47 48 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 47 42 37 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 53 41 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 12 12 9 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 89 106 113 116 152 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.7 29.2 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 163 159 154 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.8 -50.6 -50.4 -50.7 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 79 77 78 81 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -21 -9 35 59 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 29 41 79 80 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -4 -2 -1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 109 73 38 -4 -46 -137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.6 101.6 101.6 101.5 101.4 101.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 36 33 27 21 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.5 101.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162023 MAX 10/09/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.71 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.45 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.28 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 22.7% 20.1% 17.9% 0.0% 22.4% 17.5% 13.3% Logistic: 2.4% 13.5% 5.6% 3.3% 1.2% 7.4% 5.7% 4.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 12.9% 4.4% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 2.6% Consensus: 5.4% 16.4% 10.0% 7.5% 0.8% 10.4% 8.1% 6.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162023 MAX 10/09/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##