* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 10/09/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 39 47 54 61 63 66 64 62 61 61 61 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 39 47 54 61 63 66 64 62 61 61 61 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 39 45 48 49 48 45 42 41 41 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 11 10 4 7 11 9 9 13 17 19 17 15 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 14 15 12 12 13 6 6 8 14 14 9 0 -4 -4 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 35 39 44 54 59 17 289 288 300 255 229 227 254 276 292 284 280 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.4 27.6 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 156 157 158 157 157 157 154 151 150 142 131 136 136 137 138 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 76 78 80 82 81 79 76 72 65 64 66 69 69 65 63 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 12 12 15 16 16 18 16 16 13 11 8 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 35 30 27 20 22 16 24 22 24 16 -3 -4 -31 -50 -66 -83 -87 200 MB DIV 27 32 50 54 77 94 82 71 30 53 28 24 -12 8 -17 9 -36 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -7 -6 -5 -4 -2 0 0 0 6 9 20 9 7 3 2 LAND (KM) 1192 1311 1405 1489 1482 1436 1460 1554 1564 1458 1386 1372 1443 1584 1706 1818 1938 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 7.8 7.5 7.2 6.9 6.8 7.2 8.1 9.3 10.9 12.7 14.6 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.7 27.8 28.6 29.3 29.8 30.6 31.0 31.0 30.8 30.4 30.2 30.3 30.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 8 7 5 4 4 6 7 9 10 9 10 9 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 37 43 50 60 67 70 68 57 39 35 29 18 10 34 34 21 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 17. 29. 39. 49. 57. 63. 67. 68. 66. 66. 64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. -7. -6. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. -0. -1. -6. -11. -15. -20. -22. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 14. 23. 29. 37. 38. 41. 39. 37. 36. 36. 36. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.0 26.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 10/09/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.37 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.32 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.89 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 14.1% 9.2% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 11.3% 4.9% 2.5% 1.6% 5.0% 17.6% 26.5% Bayesian: 1.8% 12.0% 4.5% 1.0% 0.5% 2.4% 1.8% 1.9% Consensus: 3.2% 12.5% 6.2% 3.0% 0.7% 2.5% 9.9% 9.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 10/09/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 30 32 39 47 54 61 63 66 64 62 61 61 61 63 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 30 37 45 52 59 61 64 62 60 59 59 59 61 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 33 41 48 55 57 60 58 56 55 55 55 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 32 39 46 48 51 49 47 46 46 46 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT