* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 10/09/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 43 49 56 63 66 66 63 63 58 55 56 56 55 56 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 43 49 56 63 66 66 63 63 58 55 56 56 55 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 40 45 52 59 62 64 65 61 55 52 50 49 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 8 7 6 2 8 12 9 5 13 13 17 19 17 20 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 16 14 13 14 15 5 7 12 17 16 8 0 -1 -4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 37 45 59 76 69 324 290 288 267 218 218 263 281 306 316 314 305 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 160 159 158 154 153 152 154 150 143 136 134 135 134 136 136 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.9 -53.6 -54.1 -54.0 -54.4 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 76 78 79 78 77 77 72 72 64 64 67 67 63 63 56 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 16 17 19 18 18 16 16 13 11 9 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 31 25 15 18 16 22 20 17 14 11 -3 -21 -48 -55 -86 -101 -98 200 MB DIV 18 45 68 98 104 97 64 42 43 62 84 5 -40 -11 -10 15 -31 700-850 TADV -5 -8 -7 -5 -5 -3 0 0 0 4 7 5 15 9 4 3 1 LAND (KM) 1292 1412 1512 1506 1464 1423 1459 1551 1666 1572 1497 1479 1552 1650 1715 1804 1906 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.2 7.9 8.9 10.3 12.0 13.8 15.5 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.7 28.8 29.7 30.4 30.9 31.8 32.3 32.4 32.2 31.8 31.4 31.3 31.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 6 5 4 5 6 8 9 9 9 9 9 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 41 49 61 69 69 56 44 35 35 26 18 13 23 39 23 17 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 8. 17. 27. 37. 46. 53. 58. 62. 62. 60. 59. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -9. -8. -6. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. -3. -4. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 16. 15. 11. 5. -0. -6. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 19. 26. 33. 36. 36. 33. 33. 28. 25. 26. 26. 25. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.0 27.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 10/09/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.39 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.36 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.87 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 29.5% 15.2% 9.7% 7.4% 11.3% 12.7% 15.7% Logistic: 21.0% 35.4% 20.9% 16.3% 11.6% 15.9% 24.3% 25.5% Bayesian: 4.5% 46.5% 22.7% 5.8% 5.4% 17.8% 12.3% 2.8% Consensus: 10.3% 37.1% 19.6% 10.6% 8.1% 15.0% 16.4% 14.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 9.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 10/09/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 38 43 49 56 63 66 66 63 63 58 55 56 56 55 56 18HR AGO 30 29 34 39 45 52 59 62 62 59 59 54 51 52 52 51 52 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 37 44 51 54 54 51 51 46 43 44 44 43 44 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 33 40 43 43 40 40 35 32 33 33 32 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT