* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932023 10/09/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 24 26 35 32 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 24 26 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 25 26 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 14 18 24 33 52 71 84 93 83 62 51 47 47 52 41 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 4 9 9 7 5 -10 -2 1 3 3 0 -3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 256 238 243 244 251 256 252 263 266 275 284 297 303 306 309 315 309 SST (C) 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.6 30.5 29.8 26.4 25.0 23.4 26.2 27.0 27.8 28.6 28.6 28.9 27.0 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 168 170 171 173 174 170 123 110 98 120 128 136 146 146 152 128 125 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.5 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.4 -50.1 -50.1 -50.6 -51.0 -51.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 3 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 3 4 4 5 6 8 8 700-500 MB RH 78 79 82 81 79 78 77 71 62 51 43 39 41 43 41 43 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 4 4 5 9 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -6 -8 -2 -6 -76 -44 -43 -2 -13 -31 -36 -23 -28 -48 -58 -25 200 MB DIV 16 42 43 -2 0 63 109 63 52 -28 -29 -36 -24 -24 5 -7 37 700-850 TADV 3 7 8 14 21 61 86 79 -4 -43 -52 -27 -1 13 32 24 43 LAND (KM) 143 179 237 329 419 229 -54 -300 -60 392 880 972 863 919 1146 1522 1566 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.3 21.1 22.2 23.6 27.2 31.2 34.2 34.9 33.1 30.1 27.7 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.7 94.8 94.6 94.2 93.6 91.6 88.2 83.4 77.9 72.7 68.9 66.2 63.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 10 13 17 23 26 24 23 23 20 14 11 12 16 21 25 HEAT CONTENT 44 45 55 54 52 42 1 0 0 0 5 12 41 29 30 7 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -2. -2. 1. 7. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 25. 25. 25. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. -1. -11. -23. -35. -45. -46. -50. -52. -55. -55. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 3. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 10. 7. -2. -12. -21. -22. -24. -23. -21. -17. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.9 94.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932023 INVEST 10/09/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.35 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.31 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.99 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 5.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.92 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 14.1% 9.1% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 6.6% 4.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 6.9% 4.5% 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932023 INVEST 10/09/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932023 INVEST 10/09/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 24 24 24 26 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 23 23 23 25 26 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 23 24 24 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 17 18 18 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT