* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP152023 10/09/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 67 68 64 51 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 64 67 68 64 42 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 63 64 63 59 41 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 4 7 11 21 31 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 2 6 9 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 168 165 218 228 208 224 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.8 30.4 30.3 30.4 29.2 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 163 170 169 171 159 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.1 -50.2 -50.2 -49.8 -49.7 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 65 65 65 62 61 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 25 25 21 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 61 67 80 85 106 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 58 51 63 67 11 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 4 0 -10 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 577 516 441 298 156 -71 -369 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.3 19.9 21.5 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.4 110.5 109.5 108.3 107.1 104.5 101.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 12 13 14 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 36 48 43 46 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -2. -11. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 4. -9. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.9 111.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/09/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.61 13.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 7.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 6.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 256.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -10.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 12.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 9.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.36 2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 49.8 to 0.0 0.88 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 5.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 45.1% 63.1% 51.7% 42.2% 38.4% 24.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 29.4% 35.7% 15.6% 13.8% 3.6% 3.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.9% 10.4% 5.0% 2.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 26.1% 36.4% 24.1% 19.5% 14.1% 9.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 22.0% 29.0% 13.0% 7.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/09/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##