* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 10/10/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 37 44 51 59 61 66 67 67 66 69 70 72 68 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 37 44 51 59 61 66 67 67 66 69 70 72 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 36 41 46 49 52 53 52 52 54 55 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 6 5 3 8 7 7 3 10 17 15 17 17 20 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 16 14 17 19 18 10 4 9 13 16 13 0 -3 -5 -5 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 41 70 59 60 55 349 309 283 262 228 269 313 315 322 311 302 282 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 28.7 28.4 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 159 157 153 152 153 152 154 146 142 136 136 137 137 134 131 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 76 76 74 73 68 65 66 66 70 66 64 60 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 16 17 18 18 19 17 18 17 15 13 13 13 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 32 26 22 20 23 25 23 27 24 14 -7 -21 -49 -55 -79 -84 -85 200 MB DIV 57 82 115 120 124 74 31 33 32 33 59 -2 -4 -8 36 18 -3 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -7 -6 -5 -3 0 0 0 5 1 9 6 4 1 4 2 LAND (KM) 1455 1557 1488 1429 1389 1368 1441 1556 1709 1601 1524 1535 1632 1737 1846 1967 2082 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 7.9 7.5 7.2 7.1 7.3 8.2 9.4 10.9 12.6 14.4 16.0 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.3 30.4 31.1 31.7 32.2 32.9 33.2 33.2 32.8 32.2 31.7 31.8 32.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 7 6 4 4 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 51 61 65 58 51 44 38 31 29 20 16 16 36 33 19 17 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 748 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 17. 28. 38. 48. 55. 60. 64. 65. 63. 63. 61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -9. -7. -5. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. -0. -0. -3. -6. -10. -11. -12. -11. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. -0. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 12. 19. 26. 34. 36. 41. 42. 42. 41. 44. 45. 47. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.0 29.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 10/10/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.35 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.35 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.90 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.60 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 17.1% 11.1% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 8.5% 19.5% 7.6% 5.1% 3.6% 9.9% 19.1% 28.6% Bayesian: 1.1% 24.3% 6.3% 1.0% 1.1% 7.3% 2.3% 2.8% Consensus: 4.3% 20.3% 8.3% 4.2% 1.6% 5.7% 10.8% 10.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 10/10/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 37 44 51 59 61 66 67 67 66 69 70 72 68 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 34 41 48 56 58 63 64 64 63 66 67 69 65 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 29 36 43 51 53 58 59 59 58 61 62 64 60 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 27 34 42 44 49 50 50 49 52 53 55 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT