* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932023 10/10/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 27 32 32 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 27 32 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 25 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 21 29 40 57 77 84 84 66 49 42 39 41 40 36 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 6 10 7 8 0 -2 2 2 3 0 0 -6 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 233 242 244 246 257 249 258 262 269 280 294 302 308 311 317 324 333 SST (C) 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.6 28.5 27.3 24.5 28.3 26.9 28.8 27.9 28.4 28.5 28.9 28.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 168 171 172 174 175 149 133 106 145 126 150 136 142 145 152 147 133 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.8 -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.0 -50.1 -50.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 2 4 4 5 5 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 78 83 84 81 81 78 69 63 53 44 43 44 43 41 45 45 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 5 6 8 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -3 1 -1 -22 -75 -56 -19 -13 -59 -56 -63 -41 -50 -58 -63 -61 200 MB DIV 40 57 18 12 33 90 98 44 13 -35 -23 -18 -15 -15 -18 -11 -29 700-850 TADV 7 9 15 32 37 64 108 12 -31 -50 -31 -17 5 18 19 25 25 LAND (KM) 160 196 276 381 415 83 -193 -156 171 608 856 818 773 807 1005 1309 1661 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.7 21.7 23.1 24.7 28.4 32.1 33.9 33.3 30.8 28.2 26.5 25.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.8 94.8 94.6 94.0 93.2 90.5 86.4 81.2 76.0 72.0 69.2 67.0 64.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 8 13 16 19 24 25 23 22 20 15 12 10 12 16 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 44 50 60 52 55 22 2 0 61 9 31 20 50 29 28 23 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 755 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -2. -2. 1. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 25. 26. 25. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. -2. -13. -25. -37. -46. -46. -49. -51. -51. -51. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 7. 0. -11. -22. -29. -29. -31. -29. -24. -21. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.1 94.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932023 INVEST 10/10/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.19 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.32 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.4 27.0 to 144.1 1.00 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 7.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.92 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 12.8% 8.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 2.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 5.2% 3.3% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932023 INVEST 10/10/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932023 INVEST 10/10/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 27 32 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 26 31 27 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 23 28 24 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT