* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 10/10/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 33 36 41 45 50 56 61 66 66 68 72 74 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 33 36 41 45 50 56 61 66 66 68 72 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 27 28 30 32 36 40 44 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 3 4 3 3 10 16 11 10 7 2 10 13 12 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 18 19 22 22 18 13 11 11 12 9 6 4 -5 -3 1 5 3 SHEAR DIR 106 158 178 171 154 273 250 247 224 174 161 302 330 343 341 310 292 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.4 28.5 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 155 153 154 155 152 149 147 142 139 139 136 142 142 138 138 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 75 72 74 74 76 71 70 62 65 65 64 62 66 61 62 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 17 17 17 17 16 15 14 13 12 12 9 9 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 18 23 25 27 27 22 20 15 9 0 -9 -29 -45 -71 -70 -62 -63 200 MB DIV 66 89 107 102 112 61 26 13 -2 44 22 18 37 30 19 4 -7 700-850 TADV -9 -9 -9 -9 -7 -3 -1 0 0 2 2 2 0 -3 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1461 1558 1608 1550 1506 1452 1460 1537 1657 1804 1884 1940 2040 2142 2150 2098 2026 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.2 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.5 10.3 11.4 12.7 13.8 15.1 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.7 30.7 31.7 32.6 33.4 34.7 35.5 35.7 35.6 35.3 35.0 35.6 36.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 5 4 4 6 7 6 8 9 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 42 40 38 33 33 41 43 37 29 22 25 26 20 23 30 39 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 16. 27. 37. 46. 53. 58. 62. 63. 62. 62. 61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 4. 3. 1. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -15. -15. -14. -11. -9. -8. -6. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -17. -18. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 16. 20. 25. 31. 36. 41. 41. 43. 47. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.0 29.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 10/10/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.32 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.88 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.58 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 13.7% 8.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 14.5% 5.6% 2.1% 1.2% 4.0% 5.4% 7.5% Bayesian: 0.7% 2.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 4.5% 1.4% Consensus: 2.4% 10.1% 5.1% 2.3% 0.4% 1.5% 6.4% 3.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 10/10/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 33 36 41 45 50 56 61 66 66 68 72 74 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 31 34 39 43 48 54 59 64 64 66 70 72 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 30 35 39 44 50 55 60 60 62 66 68 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 23 28 32 37 43 48 53 53 55 59 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT