* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932023 10/10/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 22 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 22 23 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 23 19 23 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 24 34 40 66 76 83 71 47 32 29 26 30 28 30 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 6 10 7 13 5 0 3 4 2 0 -2 0 -6 -10 -9 SHEAR DIR 237 240 246 255 257 255 260 264 273 281 300 316 322 329 338 1 19 SST (C) 30.6 30.7 30.5 30.5 30.2 25.1 26.6 24.2 26.5 28.5 28.1 28.6 28.7 28.7 29.0 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 169 171 173 174 175 111 125 104 123 147 139 145 146 147 152 151 149 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.4 -50.5 -50.3 -50.1 -49.8 -50.5 -51.0 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 3 1 1 0 0 1 3 5 5 5 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 82 84 82 82 83 79 67 60 50 46 40 45 44 42 44 47 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 1 0 -5 -31 -37 -58 -8 -23 -25 -64 -46 -57 -63 -79 -91 -99 200 MB DIV 37 10 5 21 60 98 71 45 -18 -12 -6 -10 -26 -7 -24 -18 -14 700-850 TADV 8 14 24 36 51 122 99 -1 -39 -36 -19 1 3 17 12 17 7 LAND (KM) 186 235 328 415 403 29 -311 10 417 892 758 679 595 648 795 989 1176 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.2 22.5 24.0 25.8 29.8 32.9 33.7 31.9 28.8 26.1 24.7 24.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.8 94.7 94.3 93.5 92.4 89.1 84.3 78.7 73.6 69.8 67.5 65.9 64.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 10 15 19 22 27 24 23 23 20 13 9 9 10 11 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 47 56 55 54 49 0 1 0 2 23 26 45 33 28 33 50 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 778 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -2. -2. 2. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. -2. -13. -26. -36. -43. -42. -43. -44. -44. -44. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -11. -23. -32. -35. -31. -29. -26. -21. -17. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.5 94.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932023 INVEST 10/10/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.12 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.32 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.4 27.0 to 144.1 1.00 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 4.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.92 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 11.3% 7.0% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 4.5% 2.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932023 INVEST 10/10/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932023 INVEST 10/10/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 23 22 22 23 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 23 22 22 23 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 20 21 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT