* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP152023 10/10/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 73 64 58 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 73 73 64 49 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 72 69 64 49 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 14 20 26 28 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 7 14 7 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 241 227 213 218 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 29.3 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 171 172 160 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.3 -49.8 -49.7 -50.0 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 62 61 61 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 22 12 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 75 84 85 99 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 35 43 42 15 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 -3 -11 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 475 336 199 28 -71 -389 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.5 21.4 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.7 108.6 107.4 106.0 104.5 101.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 14 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 50 46 46 42 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -8. -13. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. -6. -12. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 18.4 109.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/10/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 293.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.2 49.8 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.2% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 3.6% 1.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.3% 8.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/10/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##