* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 10/10/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 27 28 30 31 35 37 41 46 50 55 60 64 69 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 27 28 30 31 35 37 41 46 50 55 60 64 69 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 23 22 21 20 19 19 19 21 24 29 34 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 12 9 8 12 19 21 14 11 10 5 2 1 6 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 14 13 15 13 10 7 8 10 7 3 2 1 2 2 4 0 SHEAR DIR 238 236 226 213 213 231 253 251 232 191 207 189 209 43 282 320 272 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 150 149 147 148 147 142 142 143 144 143 140 142 150 153 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 9 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 73 74 74 77 74 70 65 58 58 57 57 57 57 58 59 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 16 16 16 16 15 14 12 10 9 6 5 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 18 20 23 21 21 13 14 1 0 -11 -21 -28 -43 -52 -53 -48 -39 200 MB DIV 62 91 106 106 94 66 21 0 20 53 -5 52 11 23 -12 -1 -8 700-850 TADV -9 -9 -8 -7 -8 -6 0 -2 1 0 1 -4 -4 -2 -3 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1410 1497 1601 1666 1634 1600 1614 1664 1746 1803 1799 1762 1701 1644 1548 1429 1222 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.8 11.3 11.9 12.7 13.3 13.8 14.4 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.4 30.4 31.5 32.6 33.6 35.4 36.7 37.4 37.7 37.7 38.1 39.0 40.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 8 6 4 4 3 5 6 9 9 10 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 36 37 31 25 29 34 31 27 26 30 32 32 41 37 38 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 16. 26. 35. 44. 51. 56. 60. 61. 61. 62. 62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -2. -6. -9. -12. -12. -10. -8. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -10. -8. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -17. -21. -23. -25. -27. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 16. 21. 25. 30. 35. 39. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.6 29.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 10/10/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.34 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.85 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.56 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 14.2% 9.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 12.3% 4.8% 1.5% 0.8% 2.6% 2.8% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.9% 2.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 1.0% 0.6% Consensus: 2.4% 9.7% 4.8% 2.2% 0.3% 1.0% 4.1% 0.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 10/10/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 27 28 30 31 35 37 41 46 50 55 60 64 69 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 25 26 28 29 33 35 39 44 48 53 58 62 67 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 23 25 26 30 32 36 41 45 50 55 59 64 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 18 19 23 25 29 34 38 43 48 52 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT