* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932023 10/10/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 20 19 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 20 19 19 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 21 16 23 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 21 30 34 48 69 74 75 56 34 26 23 30 27 31 31 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 10 9 8 8 3 1 1 4 3 1 -1 -3 -5 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 234 234 251 255 254 258 264 269 277 284 309 321 316 320 324 345 356 SST (C) 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.0 26.3 24.6 28.0 26.8 27.7 29.1 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.6 27.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 170 172 174 175 174 122 107 141 127 136 154 147 152 153 147 130 138 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.6 -50.3 -50.4 -50.6 -50.2 -50.1 -50.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 2 4 5 6 6 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 82 80 83 84 82 77 70 62 51 47 42 43 41 45 51 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 7 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 4 5 -20 -48 -62 -37 -6 -23 -2 -9 -16 -36 -58 -88 -104 -121 200 MB DIV 15 8 29 55 68 85 60 20 -26 -19 -17 15 0 -18 -16 13 -29 700-850 TADV 12 25 31 46 79 142 35 -33 -63 -36 -17 0 9 9 15 9 11 LAND (KM) 252 329 426 476 239 -59 -110 208 707 868 730 652 738 960 1254 1594 1871 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 22.2 23.5 25.1 27.0 30.9 33.3 33.0 30.4 27.3 25.3 24.4 24.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.5 94.2 93.5 92.4 91.1 87.1 81.6 75.8 71.0 67.5 65.0 62.6 60.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 12 17 21 24 27 25 24 24 19 13 11 11 15 15 16 13 HEAT CONTENT 54 53 55 58 43 1 0 63 7 14 50 28 33 59 22 7 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 761 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -3. -2. 2. 7. 12. 16. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. 27. 27. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -13. -24. -33. -39. -37. -39. -39. -39. -39. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 9. 8. 5. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -7. -15. -26. -31. -32. -27. -25. -22. -18. -15. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.2 94.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932023 INVEST 10/10/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 46.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.0 27.0 to 144.1 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 0.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.93 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932023 INVEST 10/10/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932023 INVEST 10/10/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 22 20 19 19 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 22 20 19 19 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 19 18 18 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT