* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932023 10/10/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 21 20 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 21 20 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 20 17 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 27 28 35 47 59 65 54 30 21 22 19 26 25 24 19 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 9 8 7 10 7 3 6 5 0 -2 -2 -3 -5 -5 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 238 247 248 252 248 261 265 269 282 302 325 330 333 337 346 351 345 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.5 29.9 29.6 26.8 25.6 27.1 29.0 28.7 30.1 30.1 29.1 28.7 28.8 28.6 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 171 173 175 172 167 127 115 130 155 147 170 170 154 148 150 147 125 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.2 -50.2 -50.3 -50.0 -50.1 -49.8 -50.8 -51.1 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 2 4 5 5 6 8 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 80 84 85 83 81 69 62 53 47 44 51 51 54 56 58 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 14 12 -18 -25 -71 -14 -30 -38 -57 -41 -43 -60 -75 -87 -117 -143 200 MB DIV 30 37 55 82 94 62 39 -17 -23 -15 2 -12 -4 -5 4 -3 -3 700-850 TADV 26 32 44 57 91 112 11 -35 -18 -11 2 6 11 9 4 1 0 LAND (KM) 282 349 425 368 134 -98 65 497 724 573 499 524 540 686 939 1228 1467 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.8 24.2 26.0 27.9 31.0 32.1 30.5 27.6 25.1 23.8 23.4 23.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.6 94.2 93.3 92.0 90.2 85.4 79.8 74.6 71.1 69.2 68.1 66.6 64.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 13 19 23 26 25 24 23 18 11 7 7 11 13 15 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 58 54 61 42 34 4 1 12 52 36 82 84 37 28 28 28 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -2. -2. 2. 7. 12. 16. 20. 24. 26. 29. 30. 29. 29. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -12. -20. -27. -31. -30. -32. -32. -32. -32. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -5. -5. -6. -10. -19. -26. -28. -27. -22. -21. -17. -14. -10. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.8 94.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932023 INVEST 10/10/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 48.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.0 27.0 to 144.1 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -2.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.93 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932023 INVEST 10/10/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932023 INVEST 10/10/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 21 20 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 21 20 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT