* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 10/11/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 39 41 40 37 37 38 40 43 47 54 59 65 71 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 39 41 40 37 37 38 40 43 47 54 59 65 71 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 34 31 29 26 25 26 29 32 38 44 51 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 15 18 23 23 19 7 9 10 6 6 4 4 2 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 11 9 7 10 7 8 5 5 2 -1 4 2 4 2 3 0 SHEAR DIR 222 220 233 233 239 260 256 244 236 185 184 168 140 213 18 90 113 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 148 148 149 146 143 142 142 142 143 141 147 150 156 159 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 73 74 73 71 71 65 62 60 59 58 57 57 55 56 56 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 13 12 10 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 20 16 15 6 2 2 -10 -10 -23 -29 -26 -26 -25 -24 -25 -22 -9 200 MB DIV 81 78 61 41 49 37 -7 -23 7 -19 4 9 24 -15 -6 -4 8 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -5 -4 -6 -3 -3 0 -1 -1 -3 -8 -2 -4 -1 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 1611 1633 1604 1603 1614 1646 1702 1739 1779 1786 1757 1680 1589 1462 1350 1110 766 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.6 12.3 13.0 13.9 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.4 32.5 33.6 34.5 35.3 36.7 37.7 38.2 38.4 38.8 39.5 40.9 42.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 9 7 5 5 4 4 5 8 9 11 11 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 36 31 26 24 27 32 29 27 31 34 32 35 42 40 34 41 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 15. 24. 33. 40. 47. 51. 54. 56. 55. 56. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -11. -14. -16. -15. -15. -13. -10. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -21. -23. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 11. 10. 7. 7. 8. 10. 13. 17. 24. 29. 35. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.6 31.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 10/11/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.36 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.79 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 17.0% 11.3% 8.5% 6.0% 9.3% 8.4% 10.9% Logistic: 10.9% 19.6% 11.4% 5.6% 2.2% 3.0% 1.7% 1.9% Bayesian: 3.1% 9.8% 2.7% 1.2% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 6.1% 15.5% 8.5% 5.1% 3.2% 4.3% 3.4% 4.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 10/11/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 38 39 41 40 37 37 38 40 43 47 54 59 65 71 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 35 37 36 33 33 34 36 39 43 50 55 61 67 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 31 30 27 27 28 30 33 37 44 49 55 61 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 22 19 19 20 22 25 29 36 41 47 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT