* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEAN AL192023 10/11/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 38 36 32 34 36 36 40 44 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 38 36 32 34 36 36 40 44 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 37 37 34 30 27 26 26 28 31 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 14 16 21 24 26 22 8 11 9 8 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 9 8 8 6 6 3 1 3 2 0 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 224 241 247 254 261 256 302 86 104 107 34 341 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 147 149 148 145 148 146 138 142 147 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.3 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 71 70 63 59 55 53 48 53 51 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 16 16 14 13 11 9 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 9 3 -2 -1 -4 -14 -24 -44 -54 -51 -57 -57 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 31 18 48 49 17 -39 -10 9 -24 -13 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -5 -5 -3 -4 -1 -1 0 0 -5 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1656 1629 1612 1617 1627 1677 1617 1586 1584 1603 1613 1618 1565 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.3 12.1 12.9 13.9 15.1 16.1 16.8 17.5 18.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 32.6 33.7 34.8 35.5 36.2 37.9 39.5 40.7 42.0 43.0 43.7 44.6 45.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 9 7 8 9 8 8 8 6 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 24 24 28 32 30 28 32 45 39 39 46 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 14. 23. 30. 37. 42. 46. 48. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -11. -13. -16. -18. -16. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -4. -6. -11. -15. -18. -21. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -3. -1. 1. 1. 5. 9. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.1 32.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192023 SEAN 10/11/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.29 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.73 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 14.3% 9.4% 7.7% 4.8% 8.1% 7.1% 10.9% Logistic: 4.3% 9.1% 5.3% 2.9% 1.1% 2.1% 1.1% 1.4% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.8% 8.1% 5.1% 3.6% 2.0% 3.4% 2.7% 4.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192023 SEAN 10/11/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 37 38 36 32 34 36 36 40 44 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 36 34 30 32 34 34 38 42 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 30 26 28 30 30 34 38 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 24 20 22 24 24 28 32 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT