* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEAN AL192023 10/11/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 37 37 38 36 36 37 40 42 46 51 54 58 62 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 37 37 38 36 36 37 40 42 46 51 54 58 62 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 37 37 36 33 30 28 28 30 32 35 39 44 51 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 16 22 22 25 20 17 9 12 12 7 5 10 8 5 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 7 7 7 5 2 3 1 -1 0 -1 -2 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 220 231 249 254 261 251 260 73 121 137 124 44 334 29 44 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.6 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.9 28.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 148 146 141 144 149 149 149 151 145 144 151 149 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 71 69 67 60 57 52 49 48 48 51 51 53 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 16 15 15 13 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 2 2 3 9 -4 -6 -23 -39 -41 -52 -59 -66 -65 -71 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 24 33 54 47 2 -30 14 -32 -7 -17 -6 -21 -25 -11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -6 -4 -4 -2 -2 -2 1 -3 -3 -2 -8 -7 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1625 1611 1604 1609 1618 1624 1553 1531 1523 1528 1546 1461 1354 1174 955 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.3 11.5 12.3 13.1 14.1 15.1 16.2 17.3 17.9 18.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 34.0 34.9 35.9 36.7 37.5 39.0 40.4 41.6 42.9 44.2 45.5 46.7 47.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 8 11 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 21 28 30 30 29 26 37 46 39 41 41 47 47 43 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 14. 22. 30. 37. 42. 46. 48. 49. 48. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. -12. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. -25. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 11. 16. 19. 23. 27. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.5 34.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192023 SEAN 10/11/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.24 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.72 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 12.9% 8.5% 7.1% 4.2% 7.7% 6.9% 11.1% Logistic: 3.1% 4.3% 2.5% 1.4% 0.4% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 2.2% 6.0% 3.9% 2.9% 1.6% 3.0% 2.8% 4.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192023 SEAN 10/11/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 37 37 38 36 36 37 40 42 46 51 54 58 62 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 35 33 33 34 37 39 43 48 51 55 59 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 30 30 31 34 36 40 45 48 52 56 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 24 24 25 28 30 34 39 42 46 50 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT