* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/11/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 40 44 49 54 58 62 68 71 75 77 81 86 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 40 44 49 54 58 62 68 71 75 77 81 86 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 36 37 40 45 51 56 61 67 73 75 77 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 13 15 13 8 7 11 10 12 3 2 12 12 15 13 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 0 1 4 4 6 0 1 -1 4 7 7 5 6 1 4 SHEAR DIR 254 239 241 269 272 306 66 105 122 85 96 231 257 279 261 291 314 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.2 29.3 28.9 28.7 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 162 162 160 157 154 151 155 157 150 146 155 157 157 160 158 160 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.8 -53.6 -54.1 -53.9 -54.6 -54.1 -54.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 68 63 64 65 68 73 74 79 79 78 74 75 72 76 74 77 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -7 -4 3 10 10 5 6 8 11 16 17 11 26 13 18 20 200 MB DIV 30 29 -2 -13 0 18 22 42 77 72 44 14 34 43 44 47 71 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 475 513 548 602 648 798 970 1153 1372 1520 1442 1348 1259 1189 1114 1063 1073 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.2 8.9 8.4 7.8 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.4 21.9 23.3 24.9 26.5 28.4 30.3 32.1 34.0 35.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 6 8 8 9 10 9 9 9 7 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 26 29 31 33 34 36 30 36 46 54 41 43 62 63 66 70 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 16. 26. 36. 46. 55. 61. 67. 71. 70. 72. 73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -13. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 20. 24. 28. 32. 38. 41. 45. 47. 51. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.3 19.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/11/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.59 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.86 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 17.9% 12.0% 9.5% 7.2% 11.4% 12.8% 17.4% Logistic: 4.6% 23.0% 13.0% 7.0% 4.0% 13.4% 16.9% 41.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 8.4% 2.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 1.0% 7.1% Consensus: 3.3% 16.4% 9.1% 5.6% 3.8% 8.4% 10.2% 21.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/11/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 35 37 40 44 49 54 58 62 68 71 75 77 81 86 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 37 41 46 51 55 59 65 68 72 74 78 83 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 33 37 42 47 51 55 61 64 68 70 74 79 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 29 34 39 43 47 53 56 60 62 66 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT