* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEAN AL192023 10/12/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 28 27 26 26 28 30 32 35 39 45 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 28 27 26 26 28 30 32 35 39 45 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 25 24 22 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 23 19 23 19 14 4 12 17 9 6 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 7 6 7 3 6 2 -1 0 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 250 258 255 252 272 2 82 102 94 80 5 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.9 28.7 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 142 140 140 145 149 146 151 147 146 147 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 63 62 59 54 51 50 49 49 47 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 16 15 15 13 11 9 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -5 -4 -8 -13 -18 -37 -55 -54 -55 -66 -75 -75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 33 34 30 13 -2 -19 -32 -17 -10 -12 -36 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -5 -4 -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 -3 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1693 1703 1718 1724 1674 1594 1573 1586 1585 1568 1461 1282 1037 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.9 14.8 15.9 17.0 17.8 18.4 18.7 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.8 36.6 37.4 38.2 39.0 40.6 41.8 43.0 44.4 45.6 46.9 48.9 51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 23 23 24 24 29 44 44 42 47 42 46 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 7. 14. 22. 29. 36. 42. 45. 48. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -8. -11. -12. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 2. 5. 9. 15. 20. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.8 35.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192023 SEAN 10/12/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.22 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.70 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 9.4% 6.1% 4.3% 0.0% 6.5% 5.9% 9.7% Logistic: 0.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.4% 2.2% 1.5% 0.0% 2.3% 2.1% 3.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192023 SEAN 10/12/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192023 SEAN 10/12/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 28 28 27 26 26 28 30 32 35 39 45 50 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 29 28 27 27 29 31 33 36 40 46 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 24 24 26 28 30 33 37 43 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 19 21 23 25 28 32 38 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT